Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
