Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
